White Christmas – Kitchener, ON

I did some data analysis on snowfall in Kitchener over the last 47 years. In this time, there have been 17 years when there has been snow on the ground, or snow in the air on Christmas Day. That is 17 out of 47 white Christmas-es.

White Christmas Ahead?

In short, there is a 1 out of 3 chance (about 36% probability) that we will have a white Christmas. If we look at the graph, and if our 1/3 average holds, then 2019 might be a right in line for a white Christmas. In truth, many other factors could be considered. We could analyze how cold the previous months were. We would look at whether there had already been rain or snow recorded in December. We could also review what the weather looked like in the whole year before Christmas. If we crunched these numbers we might get a more accurate prediction of whether it will be a white Christmas or not. 

For now, we will rest in the knowledge that every three years, on average, we get a white Christmas. And the last two years have not reported snow. So let’s find out if we are average this year.

Some References

  • The GitHub project file so that you can parse your own area: link here
  • An article on how to find your weather site ID: link here
  • The historical weather data site used for this graph: link here.